The Race For The Champions League Positions

This is a post from Tess Ponsprood.

The race to qualify for the Champions League is the most exciting for many years and the outcome of it could have a big bearing on Manuel Pellegrini’s future.

Qualifying for the Champions League itself may still not be enough to save Pellegrini following the patchy run of form since the turn of the year. With City 2-1 down to Barcelona in the last 16 of the Champions League, there has been no real progress from 12 months ago. Just like his predecessor Roberto Mancini, Pellegrini has overseen a stuttering Premier League title defence.

City trail leaders Chelsea by five points with 10 games to go and they have a seven-point cushion to fifth place Liverpool in the battle to finish in the top four.

That battle has been described by Manchester United manager Louis van Gaal as a ‘rat race’ and it is probably fair to say that City are not full participants in it just yet given their advantage in second place.

Looking at recent history, you would think City should be able to pick up enough points in their final 10 games to ensure they are not left on the outside looking in at the top four spots.

Last season was something of an anomaly when 79 points were accrued by fourth-placed Arsenal. That was one more point than City gained when finishing second the year before.

A general working target for finishing fourth based on the past decade is 70 points and that would mean City only need four wins from their final 10 games. Even after winning only three of their last eight games in the Premier League, City’s form should hold up enough to get the points required.

When you look at the fixtures as well, it would be a major surprise if City are not able to gain at least 12 points. Games away to United and Tottenham will be a test, but home games against West Brom, West Ham, Aston Villa and QPR present the relatively straightforward chance to get those 12 points. It would certainly be a big concern if it got to the final game of the season – at home to Southampton – and City still needed points to be sure of Champions League football.

But, what about the dangers to City’s prospects? Well, aside from the fact that the focus at the moment should be on catching Chelsea rather than worrying about the teams below them, United have a difficult run-in. In addition to the derby, United also have to play Spurs, Liverpool, Chelsea and Everton, which is never an easy game for them.

On paper, that would make Arsenal and Liverpool the more likely teams to be in a position to catch City, with both of them having beaten Pellegrini’s side in the last couple of months.

Spurs are only three points behind fourth-placed United and go to Old Trafford on Sunday. They cannot be completely discounted, but they still have to make up eight points on City. As for Southampton, they are a point further back and it is hard to envisage Ronald Koeman’s side winning three more games than City at the very least.

All in all, City should not fail to finish the season in the Champions League positions. But then City fans are used to some late-season drama.